The growth of human
civilization is inherently dependent on managing available sources of energy,
while discovering new ones. Until the dawn of twentieth century, our growth was
very slow due to limited sources of energy. But the advent of oil and
electricity accelerated this growth like never before. However, we have made
many trade-offs along the way. People switched from ‘wood’ to ‘coal’ to avoid
deforestation, but the very coal is now a threat to forests because of acid
rain. Also, oil saved the whales as people switched from whale oil to Kerosene.
But, now the very oil is a threat to whales due to pollution of sea caused by offshore
activities, shipping and plastic dumping. Yesterday’s solution has become
today’s problem. Therefore, we need to be extremely cautious on selecting
today’s solutions, as some of them could become tomorrow’s problems.
Energy is the insignia of
life: “No energy, No life”. The entire universe is pulsating with one or the
other form of energy. Quantum physics has also confirmed that only energy
exists at sub-atomic level. Our evolution from the stone age has been powered
by the discovery of new energy sources and the energy will shape our future
generations and prosperity.
According to Michael E.
Webber (“Power Trip – The Story of Energy”), there are six demographic trends,
three technology trends and one overarching environmental trend that would
affect the future energy system.
Demographic trends:
- Population
growth: Each person requires food and water to live. Energy
is required to gain access to these resources. World’s population is set to
rise from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion by 2050.
- Industrialization: Industrialization requires energy and makes many more people rich. Developing and underdeveloped countries would continue to increase their industrialization.
- Economic growth: There are still more than a billion people without access to electricity, piped water, or sanitation. Also, rich people consume more energy than poor people.
- Urbanization: Rich people move into cities, buy cars, and electrify various activities of their lives.
- Motorization: Economically developing countries see rapid adoption of automobiles as a status symbol.
- Electrification:
Electricity is the preferred form of energy because of its convenience and
cleanliness inside our homes and businesses.
Technology trends:
- Efficiency:
Use of less energy to achieve the same purpose. Internal Combustion Engines
(ICE) running on gasoline (fossil fuels) are becoming more fuel-efficient and
less polluting. This trend is set to continue with all energy appliances.
- Information-intensive:
Due to rapid deployment of widespread sensors to collect data and continuously
decreasing cost of computing, we will have more data, which will change the way
we interact with each other, appliances and structures. More data will help in driving
energy efficiency. Advances in Digitalization is driving improved operational
efficiencies and better returns on investment. Data from IoT devices and
AI-assisted analytics will lead to cost reduction, enable predictive
maintenance and boost efficiency.
- Decentralization:
Power generation will move from a few large power plants far away to many on-site
micro plants (e.g. roof tops), thus cutting on transmission losses and
transient outages. Manufacturing will move from far-flung factories to
individual consumer sites with 3D printing (mass customization versus mass
production). Mass transit systems will be replaced with micro transit giving
point-to-point service (e.g. Uber).
Environmental trend:
The
UN Environment Program’s (UNEP) own emissions gap report,
released just prior to the COP25 in Madrid in Dec 2019, showed the stretch 1.50C
goal of the Paris Agreement is
“slipping out of reach”. Even if existing climate pledges
– countries’ Nationally Determined
Contributions, or NDCs – are met, emissions in
2030 will be 38% higher than the required target, the report concluded.
While the six demographic
trends will drive the shift in the amount and type of energy we consume, the
three technological trends will make our energy systems smarter, faster and
cheaper. Combination of these trends will also help us manage the trade-offs
between upsides and downsides of different energy systems.
Decarbonization in
parallel with increasing energy access is the defining challenge of the 21st
Century. It is now a widely accepted fact that decarbonization is critical to
avoid the worst effects of climate change. It is also recognized that we need
to increase our access to energy to satisfy the growing needs of increasing
population and energy demand.
According to
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2019 launched in Vienna last year:
- Total primary energy demand is set to expand by a robust 25% between 2018 and 2040.
- All forms of energies will be required in the future to help to meet expanding demand in a sustainable way, balancing the needs of people in relation to their social welfare, the economy and the environment.
The Noble Laurette Dr. Richard
Smalley (who gave the world his list of 10 grand challenges) says: We need to
do three related things to solve our energy problem:
- Inspire the next generation of scientists
and engineers to find new sources of energy
- Develop energy supplies that won’t run
out, and
- Solve global climate change.
We need a combination of
new production, increased energy access, smarter solutions, and a cultural
emphasis on efficiency and conservation. While developing the cleaner forms of
energy (e.g. solar, wind, nuclear), we also need to clean-up conventional forms
(coal, oil) with carbon capture and scrubbers.
Co-existence of different
forms of energy is the reality of the foreseeable future.
We also need a paradigm
shift in our cultural understanding of the energy consumption, if we want
to succeed in our endeavors. Michael E. Webber (“Power Trip”) suggests paradigm
shift in the following areas:
Economic
sense: More
expensive, efficient, cleaner items usually reduce operating costs (Total Cost
of Ownership). On the other hand, use of cheap and dirty options cause
pollution that makes people sick impacting their productivity and costing them
medical expenses – thus inhibiting economic growth.
My
Backyard: We often don’t think beyond our own home’s backyard
and try to keep it safe and clean. In reality, we should consider the entire
earth as our backyard. Pollution caused in one corner of the earth has
potential to pollute the entire earth. Every occupant of the earth is a stakeholder
of this challenge.
Nature (ecosystem) doesn’t
need us; we need the nature for our survival. Nature is also forgiving up to a
point. Beyond this point, we must pay a heavy price for our follies. Nature is
inherently designed to correct itself through unexpected storms, earthquakes,
tsunamis etc. If we exploit the nature for our greed, nature will ruin us to
restore its balance.
Emerging IR4.0
technologies will take away many jobs currently performed by humans. Our
day-to-day activities will be performed by various gadgets. We will have a lot
of free time to do whatever we want. The question, then, is: “What would we
want to do in the future? Would we allow the technology to steal our free time
through unproductive distractions?”
The famous historian and
philosopher Dr. Will Durant, along with his wife Ariel Durant, said in their best-known
work (The Story of Civilization): “World has progressed in terms of ‘means’ not
in terms of ‘ends’. Human’s basic desires are still the same, while the means
to fulfil them have progressed.”
We should strive to rise
above this state of mere fulfilling basic desires. We should find new ‘ends’ to
our living. We can start using nature’s resources, including energy,
responsibly. Energy saved is energy produced. So much energy can be saved by
simply focusing on our essential needs. We can choose the freely available
muscle energy in preference to energy-hungry gadgets to perform many routine
activities that will also keep us in good health and save medical bills (e.g.
cycling short distances rather than using cars, climbing stairs rather than
using elevators, walking to colleague’s desk in the office rather than using
phones). We should use a gadget or an appliance only to achieve a meaningful
objective or goal. Most of all, we should spend more time in the nature
contemplating on life’s meanings. Let’s step into the future with a resolve to
work in harmony with the nature. The bounty of nature is waiting for us.
